Talking about stocks is showing off
Fun fact: In the time since the OP posted this, the stock has gone up about 13.02%. The answer was yes. Now, say you bought some at that point... hypothetically speaking. Do you sell it now? Hmm.
A short squeeze is happening, but bigger than that, Panasonic announced they reached profitability on their US operations. So they are making money on the gigafactory now. Inevitably there will be a dip, but there is more positive news to come from Tesla and it will come this year (battery advances, S&P500 inclusion, deferred asset recognition).
Last edited by AZGolf; 02-03-2020 at 12:29 PM.
Buy low, sell high.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
But seriously, folks, the only sure thing, the secret I'm about to divulge, the one tenet I've held for many decades that has made me a happy, healthy man:
Never throw a brick straight up.
At over $138 billion, has Tesla passed the following companies in market cap from its gains TODAY alone...
Thermo Fisher Scientific
It's pretty amusing for sure. Still: The reason for the valuation is future business. Tesla is hoping to grow at least 5x or something from their current 400k cars a year and limited solar and home battery deployments to perhaps 2M cars/year and extensive solar and battery deployments. While I'm still somewhat in amazement that it's real, Tesla managed to book almost $25 Billion in revenue last year. So growing 5x from there puts them at $125B, or just a bit below Costco, from your example which sits just over 6x Tesla's 2019 revenue. The truly optimistic people are the ones who think Tesla could be the next Volkswagen or something with a truly global presence and moving 10 million cars a year in addition to the rest of their admittedly slow moving energy portfolio. If their energy portfolio goes on a tear though in addition to massive growth in global sales volume then I guess it all makes sense. It's still a high risk play I'm only comfortable with due to TSLA being a small part of my overall mutual funds but when I sat down to see if the math even added up, it's actually not ridiculously far from reality if Tesla does grow 5-10x over the next 5-10 years.
Found a closer comparison using the list above, I think.
Tesla: Market cap of $137.5B on Revenue of $24.6B.
Accenture: Market cap of $136.6B on Revenue of $44B.
Abbvie: Market cap of $122B on Revenue of $33B.
Again, Tesla is significantly higher valuation per dollar of revenue, but it's not even double of what Accenture is. The numbers for Abbvie weren't totally different either. Obviously revenue is only tangentially related to profits, but Tesla is still very much in growth mode where they are reinvesting current would-be profits into the company's growth of revenue by expanding the product lines. It's the next 5-10 years where we'll see if the grand Tesla experiment worked or not.
Last edited by AZGolf; 02-03-2020 at 04:17 PM.
So... if Elon Musk got hit by a bus tomorrow what would happen to the stock?
In other words how much of the company's value is dependent on his genius and innovation (like say Steve Jobs was to Apple) and how much could the company carry on just fine without him?
Apple stock has continued to new heights without Jobs, but there are no more product innovations, just different sized screens.
I wonder what would happen to Tesla stock without Musk.
And Microsoft's stock price is indicative that nothing has to work correctly if you shove enough contracts down big business and government throats.
F***ck. I should have bought stocks